www.checkbiotech.org ; www.raupp.info ; www.czu.cz

The long-term prospects for agriculture appear encouraging, according to the
latest review by Andersons, a leading firm of consultants, March 2007 by
Dan Buglass.

With forecasts suggesting that there will be nine billion people on the
planet before 2050, it is fair to assume that the demand for food will rise
accordingly. At the same time, living standards are anticipated to rise,
particularly in the developing world.

Andersons says: "As the emerging markets have increased global wealth over
the past decade, the overall per capita demand for grain has increased,
despite increased meat consumption. Urbanisation links people with fresh
food markets and electricity, meaning fridges and cookers are now more
common in cities in developing countries. Demand for fresh food and
vegetables has consequently been rising significantly."

Climate change is now accepted as fact, and this will have a major impact on
agricultural production throughout the world.

The review says: "Some big factors are coming into play on the long-term
commodity markets. Ongoing rising demand for crops from population change
and non-food products, coupled with falling water levels in some key
agricultural regions is providing strong bullish sentiment. Unconfirmed
reports suggest that land under grass for livestock aimed at meat production
is close to maximum capacity."

One of the major growth areas for UK farmers over the next decade will be
the provision of feedstock for biofuel production. It is estimated that the
UK's Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation will require six million tonnes of
grain and oilseed rape each year. The by-product from fuel production will
be a high protein, low energy meal that will be suitable for feeding to
cattle and sheep.

It has been forecast that next year's "health check" of the Common
Agricultural Policy will see set-aside abolished. However, Andersons doubts
that this land will immediately be turned over to arable production.

But the outlook remains positive for the arable sector, according to the
report. It concludes: "The US, Brazil and the EU will shortly between them
be using more grain for biofuels than the entire global trade for cereals.
The key regions promoting the industry are understandably the exporting and
wealthier countries.

"Grain-importing countries are rather concerned about the potential for
biofuels. It will not be the wealthy westerners that have to decide between
food or fuel. It will be the poverty stricken countries that have no choice.
That is, of course, unless the world can increase grain production on a
massive scale, and very rapidly, to meet the burgeoning demand on the
commodity market."

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