By Matthew Dalton

Europe's unease about genetically modified crops is threatening to create
continent-wide shortages of soybeans, a crucial source of protein in the
diet of Europe's livestock.

The European Union's strict regulations on genetically modified crops could
prevent the import of millions of metric tons of new biotech soybeans likely
to be planted in the U.S., Argentina and Brazil, the world's main soybean
growers.

EU livestock farmers might not be able to get enough soybean for feed in the
coming years, because exporters won't ship to Europe for fear that their
cargos could contain unapproved biotech soybeans in the normal course of
production and shipping. A similar obstacle exists for many corn imports,
but, unlike soybeans, the EU can grow plenty of corn within its borders.

Farmers across the world already have been hit hard by rising fuel and feed
prices. In Europe, a shortage-driven rise in soybean prices would likely
spill over into meat prices, particularly of pork and chicken, prompting
steep declines in their consumption and production.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, is debating how to respond,
with one possibility being permitting trace amounts of unapproved biotech
crops in imports. "We need to make sure we can source sufficient quantities
of soy and proteins from outside Europe," said Michael Mann, the
commission's agriculture spokesman.

An analysis published in 2007 by the commission found that under a
"worst-case scenario" -- an interruption of soybean imports from the U.S.,
Brazil and Argentina -- European pork production would fall 34.7% in 2010
and poultry production would fall 43.9%.

Argentina and Brazil have in the past been careful only to allow planting of
biotech strains approved by the EU for import. But China's emergence as a
major soybean importer may reduce the EU's sway over the growers, the
commission's report said.

The commission's options are limited by Europeans' deep suspicion of
genetically modified crops. Almost 60% of Europeans oppose allowing
genetically modified, or GM, crops into the food supply, according to a poll
released in March by Eurobarometer, the commission's polling office.

The EU is accordingly one of the world's hardest places to grow or import
biotech crops. The approvals process usually takes three years or more,
compared with average 16 to 18 months in the U.S., say officials from the
biotech industry.

Those long approval times have already blocked U.S. corn growers from
exporting to Europe, because the U.S. has approved biotech varieties that
aren't approved in the EU. Europe has managed without U.S. corn because the
continent can grow much of its own.

But it probably won't be able to do the same with soy. The EU imports nearly
40 million metric tons of soy annually, or three quarters of its total soy
consumption. Soybeans account for 55% of Europe's protein-rich animal feed,
according to GMO Compass, a Web site sponsored in part by the commission.

There is one variety of genetically modified soybean planted widely --
Roundup Ready 1 developed by Monsanto Co. -- which has been approved for
import to the EU. But two new varieties, one each from Monsanto and Bayer
AG, will be planted in the next year in the U.S. Brazil and Argentina are
expected to begin planting later.

These crops appear likely to get import clearance into Europe, as the EU
took several steps this month toward approval. But it's not clear whether
the EU will approve Monsanto's Roundup Ready 2 for import by the fall of
2009, when the soybean crop will be harvested from 400,000-800,000 hectares
in the U.S.

With 22 other genetically modified soybeans under development by the
industry, according to the American Soybean Association, a trade group,
uncertainty over whether a new soybean variety will get EU approval in time
for the fall harvest could become an annual ritual.

One solution being considered by the commission would be to set a tolerance
level for the presence of unapproved GM materials in food and feed imports.
U.S. exporters could then ship approved soybeans to Europe without worrying
that tiny amounts of unapproved GM soybeans in the shipment would block the
entire cargo from being delivered. However, the proposal, which the
commission said it wanted ready before its summer vacation that started this
week, is still under discussion. It is also unclear if EU law allows the
commission to set the tolerance high enough to make those imports practical.

If the issue isn't resolved, more farmers will go out of business, farm
groups say, and the EU will increasingly be forced to import its meat --
where animals will be fed with GM crops anyway.
www.checkbiotech.org