Scientists working to study the impacts of climate change on agriculture
based their predictions on rainfall, drought intensity, and weather
volatility. However, a new study conducted by scientists at the University
of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign puts predictions based on field working
days.

In a previous study, the group developed models that reliably translated
past climate data into field working days for Illinois. Those models are
coupled with climate change scenarios to forecast field working days into
the future in the new study. The group ran the models for nine crop
districts in Illinois for two time periods, mid-century (2046 to 2065) and
late-century (2080 to 2099), using three climate scenarios ranging from mild
to extreme.

For Illinois, the
<[www.isaaa.org]
load/biotech-crop-annual-update-maize-2016.pdf> corn planting window will be
split in two to avoid wet conditions in April and May. Each planting window
carries increased risk, as the early planting window could be thwarted by
frost or heavy precipitation, and the late window cut short by intense
late-summer drought.

"Drought periods will intensify in mid- to late-summer under all the climate
scenarios. If farmers decide to plant later to avoid the wet period in April
and May, they're going to run into drought that will hit yield during the
anthesis-silking interval, leading to a lot of kernel abortion. That second
planting window is probably pretty risky," said University of Illinois and
USDA Agricultural Research Service ecologist Adam Davis.

[news.aces.illinois.edu]
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