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Due to environmental regulatory pressures and a push to develop genetic
resistance in key target crops, the U.S. market for chemicals used to
control nematode infestations is poised to experience big changes over the
next ten years. A study published in November by Kline & Company predicts
that the market for liquid chemical and fumigant nematicide treatments,
estimated at more than $280 million in the United States, will lose a
significant portion of that value in the next decade, January 2005.


But while these factors and others are converging to create a declining
market, they are also creating an underserved one, and pesticide suppliers
may find an opportunity to extend the use of their existing products into
this secondary application.

In fact, the two main chemicals used to control infestations of the
microscopic worms that damage plant roots, stems, and foliage are applied
primarily to control other problems??insects in the case of aldicarb and
soil pathogens in the case of metam sodium. Both of these chemicals are
facing increasing scrutiny while two other nematicides, methyl bromide and
Nemacur, are being phased out.

At the same time, biologists are working to develop or enhance genetic
resistance to nematodes in key crops like potatoes, tomatoes, and cotton.
Kline?s study, THE U.S. MARKET FOR NEMATICIDES 2004, indicates that by 2013,
nematode resistance??mainly introduced via traditional plant breeding
methods??will have a major impact on nematicide chemical use for more than
half of the 21 crop types Kline examined.

Still, genetic resistance won?t entirely eliminate the need for chemical
control for these crops, according to Mancer Cyr, senior associate in Kline?
s Specialty Pesticides Practice.

?Genetically modified crops may not protect against all types of nematodes,
and effectiveness will vary from crop to crop. Introduced control can also
fade over time,? Cyr says. ?With many of the current nematicides already
being phased out or heading in that direction, growers will need to switch
to something.?

Suitable alternatives to the chemicals to be shelved will often be expected
to provide control of weeds and soil pathogens as well as nematodes. This
could necessitate the use of combination treatments, particularly for
high-value vegetable crops. And the industry must anticipate even stricter
environmental requirements than the ones that caused the exit of their
predecessors.

THE U.S. MARKET FOR NEMATICIDES 2004 covers five crop categories and 21
different crop and noncrop markets to determine the extent of recognized
nematode damage, identify important nematode species, and examine the degree
to which the damage is treated with cultural practices versus chemicals and
fumigants. The study provides sales and market share data by active
ingredient for 2002 or 2003 for each crop market, as well as estimates of
active ingredient consumption and application rates.

Kline is also considering a broader analysis on the major regional markets
for nematicides outside the United States and is soliciting input from
potential subscribers to define the scope of this project.

For more information, go to www.klinegroup.com/Y579.htm .

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