Research by Wageningen UR has revealed that possible new EU crop
protection regulation will have serious economic consequences for the
Netherlands.
Yields could decrease by as much as 50 to 100 percent due to the major
reduction in pesticides allowed for crops such as roses, chrysanthemums,
cucumbers, Brussels sprouts, spring-sown onions, tulips and ornamental
shrubs. This could make Dutch cultivation unviable and even mean that
cultivation stops altogether in the Netherlands.

Wageningen UR studied two scenarios that are currently on the table.
Firstly the European Parliament's position after the first reading of
the common position of the European Commission and Council of Ministers (the
'EP-cut-off' scenario) and secondly the common position of Commission and
Council of Ministers (the 'EC-CMR/ED' scenario).

The studies show that the EP-cut-off scenario will result in yields
being reduced by 50 to 100 percent due to the banning of a large number of
pesticides for roses, chrysanthemums, cucumbers, Brussels sprouts,
spring-sown onions, tulips and ornamental shrubs. This makes cultivation in
the Netherlands unviable and will have enormous consequences for the
production of and international trade in these crops. Cultivation may even
disappear from the Netherlands altogether, which would have a major economic
and social impact.

Despite the fact that the number of pesticides that would be banned in
the EC-CMR/ED scenario is much lower, this scenario would also have a
considerable impact on most of the abovementioned crops.

In the proposal of the Council of Ministers and the European Committee
for a new Crop Protection Regulation, the criteria for the approval of
pesticides are no longer based on risk alone. Other criteria involved
include the intrinsic carcinogenic, mutagenic, reprotoxic (CMR) and hormone
disruptive (ED: Endocrine disruption) characteristics of substances. The
European Parliament decided in autumn 2007 that more active substances
should be banned from the EU.

Research

Commissioned by the Dutch Federation of Agriculture and Horticulture
(LTO Nederland) and financed by the Product Boards for Horticulture and
Arable Farming, Wageningen UR carried out research into the economic impact
of two scenarios for the following crops: Table potatoes, seed potatoes,
spring-sown onions, winter wheat, sugar beets, Brussels sprouts,
chrysanthemums, roses, tomatoes, cucumbers, tulips, ornamental shrubs and
apples. The research into sugar beet was performed in cooperation with the
IRS, the Dutch research centre for sugar beet cultivation.

EP-cut-off scenario

The research shows that the banning of a large number of pesticides
used with roses, chrysanthemums, cucumbers, Brussels sprouts, spring-sown
onions, tulips and ornamental shrubs could result in yield reductions of 50
to 100 percent. This will render cultivation in the Netherlands unprofitable
and have extreme consequences for the production of and international trade
in these crops.

Yield losses for seed potatoes, table potatoes, winter wheat, tomatoes
and apples are estimated at 15 to 32 percent. The profit made from
cultivating these crops will be significantly reduced, which will put
pressure on viability and make it difficult if not impossible to pay fixed
costs. In addition, with so many pesticides being banned in this scenario,
other problems are likely to emerge as diseases, pests and/or weeds become
resistant to the remaining pesticides and harder to control.

Other long-term effects are hampering weed management, a growing
nematode population and an increase in diseases and pests that were also
affected (side effects) by the former pesticides. The long-term effects of
this study were not formulated into exact figures but are also likely to
have a significant impact.

EC-CMR/ED Scenario

Although the number of pesticides banned in this scenario is much
smaller than in the EP scenario, it will still have a considerable impact on
most crops.

Ornamental shrubs, spring-sown onions, roses and chrysanthemums will
be affected by the lack of pesticides to such a degree that cultivation will
result in losses or become economically unviable. Fixed costs will become
hard or impossible to pay. There will also be yield losses in the
cultivation of seed potatoes, table potatoes, sugar beet, Brussels sprouts,
cucumbers, tomatoes and apples and these crops will become less economically
viable. Only the cultivation of winter wheat will be relatively unaffected
despite the fact that several pesticides will be banned for this crop as
well.

This scenario may also lead to long-term effects including increased
resistance and a growing nematode population.

The report is available, in Dutch only, at:
www.ppo.wur.nl/NL/nieuwsagenda/nieuws/scenarios161008.htm
www.checkbiotech.org