New research finds that the world faces a small but substantial increased
risk over the next two decades of a major slowdown in the growth of global
crop yields because of climate change.

Authors David Lobell of Stanford University and Claudia Tebaldi from the
National Center for Atmospheric Research say that the odds of a major
production slowdown of wheat and corn, even in a warming climate, are not
very high, but the risk is about 20 times more significant than it would be
without global warming. They added that it may need planning by
organizations that are affected by international food availability and
price.

Lobell and Tebaldi estimated the odds that climate change could interfere
with crop producers' ability to keep up with demand. Using a number of
simulation models, they focused on the less likely, but a potentially more
dangerous scenario that climate change would reduce yield growth by 10
percent or more.

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