Research led by Finland's Aalto University assessed just how global food
production will be affected ifgreenhouse gas emissionsare left uncut.
The research reveals that rapid, out-of-control growth of greenhouse gas
emissions may, by the end of the century, lead to more than a third of
current global food production falling into conditions in which no food
is grown today.

According to the study, this scenario is likely to occur if carbon
dioxide emissions continue to grow at current rates. The researchers
defined the concept of safe climatic space as those areas where 95% of
crop production currently takes place, thanks to a combination of three
climate factors, rainfall, temperature, and aridity.

The researchers used two future scenarios for climate change in the
study: one in which carbon dioxide emissions are cut radically, limiting
global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius, and another in which emissions
continue growing unhalted. The researchers assessed howclimate change
would affect 27 of the most important food crops and seven different
livestock, accounting for societies' varying capacities to adapt to
changes. The results show that threats affect countries and continents
in different ways; in 52 of the 177 countries studied, the entire food
production would remain in the safe climatic space in the future. These
include Finland and most other European countries.

Already vulnerable countries including Benin, Cambodia, Ghana,
Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, and Suriname will be hit hard if no changes are
made; up to 95 percent of current food production would fall outside of
safe climatic space. Alarmingly, these nations also have significantly
less capacity to adapt to changes brought on by climate change when
compared to rich Western countries. In all, 20% of the world's crop
production and 18% of livestock production under threat are located in
countries with low resilience to adapt to changes.

Climate change threatens one-third of global food production | Aalto
University
[www.aalto.fi]