Engineered agriculture uses the tools of biotechnology to analyze and
manipulate plant DNA to create varieties with new or enhanced
characteristics
Engineered agriculture uses the tools of biotechnology to analyze and
manipulate plant DNA to create varieties with new or enhanced
characteristics, explains Social Technologies futurist Justman says. "This
allows traits developed in other, incompatible plants or even other
organisms (e.g., bacteria) to be integrated into the DNA of commercial plant
varieties."

Washington, DC - The DC-based research and consulting firm Social
Technologies recently released a series of 12 briefs that shed light on the
top areas for technology innovation through 2025. The brief on engineered
agriculture, by futurist Mark Justman, is the tenth trend in the series.

Engineered agriculture uses the tools of biotechnology to analyze and
manipulate plant DNA to create varieties with new or enhanced
characteristics, Justman says. "This allows traits developed in other,
incompatible plants or even other organisms (e.g., bacteria) to be
integrated into the DNA of commercial plant varieties."

Generally, the crops developed through engineered agriculture can be
considered to have three generations of evolution:

a.. First generation. Crops that are modified to resist herbicide
treatments or infestation by insects.
b.. Second generation. Crops that have improved plant
characteristics, such as better nutritional composition, greater tolerance
for heat or cold, or greater tolerance for drought or high-salinity
conditions.
c.. Third generation. Crops modified to create useful molecular
compounds, such as biopharmaceutical products, complex proteins, bioplastic
compounds, or vaccines.

Challenges ahead
Today's GM crops have already achieved significant commercial success
in global agriculture. However, their growth has been paralleled by
widespread fears and concerns about the safety and efficacy of genetically
modifying foods designed for human and animal consumption.

Unless these concerns are addressed, Justman believes public and
regulatory resistance to new forms of engineered agriculture could be a
roadblock for the deployment of the more exotic applications of engineered
agriculture that will emerge in the future:

a.. Public fears. Public concerns about modified crops can trigger
higher regulatory burdens and slow the adoption of GM food products. The US
public is generally accepting of GM foods, with a 2006 Pew survey finding
34% of US consumers believing they were safe, and 29% believing they were
unsafe. When consumers are told the extent to which GM products are
currently present in the food supply, the percentage of consumers who feel
GM foods are safe increases by 11%.

"However, US consumers are generally ignorant of their consumption of
GM foods: 60% believed that they had not eaten GM foods during 2006. In
reality, though, Americans are eating modified foods all the time," Justman
says, noting that estimates suggest that 75% of processed foods in the US
contain some genetically modified ingredients. In Europe, public opposition
is much stronger, with 58% of participants in a 2006 Eurobarometer survey
saying that GM foods "should not be encouraged."


a.. Gene deletion. Justman notes that one of the technologies in the
report could play a role in shifting public perceptions about the safety of
GM crops. "Gene deletion is a new approach to the genetic modification of
plants that allows GM traits to be eliminated before the plant matures. In a
sense, the modified genes will 'uninstall' themselves like a piece of
software before plants reach a growth stage where GM traits can spread in
the environment or before final harvest for human consumption."

For a trait like herbicide resistance, gene deletor technology could
allow the resistance genes to remain during the critical, early growth
phases, but then delete them before plant maturation, fruiting, or pollen
production. The mature plant would not have the genetically modified traits
in harvested fruits or grains, and the risks of cross-pollination with other
plants would be dramatically reduced.

Justman notes that previous attempts to use genetic encoding to keep
GM plants sterile, such as Monsanto's "terminator gene" technology, met wide
widespread public condemnation. These criticisms stemmed from the fact that
programmed genetic controls on plant reproduction would force farmers to
purchase new seeds every year.

Gene deletion technology addresses this concern by confining its
genetic interventions to specific genetically modified plant traits,
allowing farmers to reuse the seeds, but without the benefit of GM traits.
Plants with a gene deletor mechanism would produce fertile seeds that could
be planted by subsistence farmers, but these seeds would not express any of
the GM traits.

According to Justman, "Gene deletor technology would allow a
compromise between intellectual property protection for GM traits, and
subsistence farmers who rely on seed storage for next year's crop. It has
the potential to be a win-win for both agribusiness and small-scale
farmers."

This technology could allow biotech and agricultural companies to have
a better chance of recouping the R&D costs on GM crops, potentially making
it more cost-effective to develop new GM crops for niche markets. This could
be especially important for the second- and third-generation GM crops that
will offer unique characteristics, but as a result will have smaller
potential markets for a given plant variety.

Mark Justman: Futurist
Mark Justman joined Social Technologies in 2003 as a senior writer/
analyst. His work has focused on tracking and analyzing consumer and
technology trends in the automotive, retail, and energy industries. A
professional futurist since receiving his MA in future studies from the
University of Hawaii in 1999, Mark's primary interest is identifying the
emerging issues and discontinuities that have the potential to impede,
accelerate, or modify extrapolative trends. Prior to Social Technologies,
Mark worked at the Institute for Alternative Futures, where his project work
included construction of biotechnology scenarios for the UK's Economic and
Social Research Council (ESRC) and creation of an interactive forecasting
tool for healthcare on behalf of the World Health Organization. Areas of
expertise: Energy (green, renewable, oil), the future of US politics, future
of technology.

About Social Technologies
Social Technologies is a global research and consulting firm
specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and innovation. With
offices in Washington DC, London, and Shanghai, Social Technologies serves
the world's leading companies, government agencies, and nonprofits. A
holistic, long-term perspective combined with actionable business solutions
helps clients mitigate risk, make the most of opportunities, and enrich
decision-making.

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