By Cary Blake
While the debate over agricultural biotechnology still rages in many
parts of the world, China is moving forward at a rapid pace in developing
genetically modified rice, according to a Stanford University professor who
is an expert on the agriculture of the world?s most populous nation.
Scott Rozelle, senior fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for
International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif., talked with
325 rice researchers, Extension personnel, farmers, and others at the 32nd
Rice Technical Working Group (RTWG) meeting recently in San Diego, Calif.

China?s milled rice production totaled 139.5 million metric tons this
season, representing 30 percent of the world?s production. By comparison,
U.S. milled production stood at about 6.3 million metric tons.

Rozelle has visited Chinese rice research labs, met with Chinese rice
growers, and of late studied China?s efforts to develop genetically modified
(GM) rice.

?In the last 10 years, China has probably been the healthiest
agricultural economy in the world in total factor productivity growth,?
Rozelle said. ?From 1985-1995, China squeezed 2 percent more productivity
per year out of its food system, faster than the country?s population
growth; productivity rose at a rate of more than 3 percent since 1995.?

Twenty-five percent of Chinese rice production is Japonica
short-medium grain and 75 percent is Indica long grain. Chinese consumption
of Indica rice has fallen 20 percent in the last decade ? a trend Rozelle
called ?unprecedented.? Japonica demand has more than doubled in the same
time frame.

?The bottom has fallen out of the Indica demand side of the equation
mainly as incomes have risen and with changes in diet. This hasn?t happened
in Japonica,? Rozelle said.

Japonica demand is increasing in three geographic areas: the country?s
northern areas where incomes have increased rapidly over the past decade;
the Yangtze River Delta, home to 100 million of China?s wealthiest
residents; and by nearly one hundred million rural migrants who previously
ate wheat products, but have moved to cities seeking new jobs and now prefer
rice.

?I think there is an opportunity, given taste and preference, for
higher quality Japonica and other goods from the United States to be sold in
China,? Rozelle said.

In the last five years, China?s financial investment in its
agriculture has been staggering, an increase from 0.5 percent of the
agricultural gross domestic market to a full 1 percent.

?At a time when the rest of the world is decreasing agricultural
spending, China has doubled its investment in agricultural research and
development,? Rozelle said. Many of the dollars are earmarked for
biotechnology. ?They clearly are considering putting their eggs in the
biotech basket.?

China had no ag biotech industry in 1986. It totaled $100 million in
1999, and ballooned to $300 million in 2003. Rozelle said this is more than
all the dollars invested in biotech by the developing world combined. China
is also outspending the U.S. government on biotechnology. China?s investment
in biotechnology could reach more than $20 billion over the next two
decades.

The biggest breakthrough in biotech in the world so far is Bt cotton,
Rozelle said. China has about six million hectares of the
lepidopterous-resistant cotton. China sent shockwaves throughout the world
from 2002-2004 with its announced intentions to commercially develop GM
rice, the staple food for more than 50 percent of the world?s population.

In China, Rozelle helped analyze GM rice data at three sites. Overall,
GM rice showed positive yield increases in some years but not others.
However, this is not the primary reason China is developing GM rice.

?The largest benefit was the reduction in pesticide use, mainly for
the rice stem borer. Of the farmers that used GM rice, 62 percent didn?t
apply any pesticides on GM plots,? Rozelle said. ?Not only did farmers
reduce pesticide use and generate some higher yields, the seed was given to
them for free. GM rice gave growers a 30 percent net increase in income.?

In 2002, some of the top leaders in China planned to approve the
commercialization of GM rice, but another leader with interests in foreign
trade raised a red flag. ?The concern was if GM rice is extended, China?s
trade prospects could be destroyed if no one imported GM rice. They put the
brakes on it,? Rozelle said.


[southwestfarmpress.com]